Housing data analyst Logan Mohtashami shares via HousingWire how predictions for a pandemic-driven housing bubble crash are unfounded. It’s not stay-at-home orders and constructions shutdowns that should drive housing predictions, he says, but instead “it is demographics and mortgage rates that calls the show.”
As he previously predicted in April, Mohtashami, has said data after July 15 will provide ” imminent demise or survival and recovery of the housing market.” As the nation and world adjusted to a new way of doing things during the COVID-19 pandemic, even as it rages on in some areas, “we are entering Act 4 in 2020 for housing, and it’s time to let go of this crash thesis,” Mohtashami says. “The reality is this: it wasn’t going to happen in 2020 even with a pandemic virus.”
“Today, we are on an upswing. The U.S. housing market is undergoing a V-shaped recovery, but until existing home sales hit 5,770,000 again, the full recovery in existing home sales will not be complete as that was the number we hit earlier this year.
My recommendation, even with the new increase in COVID-19 cases, is to start a conversation regarding the future of the housing market all over again to refocus on the factors that really matter: demographics, mortgage rates and the national progress to conquer this horrific virus, reopen the economy and get people working again.”
For more detailed information, see Mohtashami’s column in HousingWire.
